Hey all,
We will use this site until Liveweatherblogs.com is back up soon. So the chatter has been will we see a storm in the next few days and what will it bring ? This timeframe is the one where we would see some storms and we have them they just may not be in the form most of you like them.
The GFS model is a straight up rain solution for Sunday in Philly and points south. It has over 1″ of rain for the area most of Sunday and maybe into Monday. The air aloft and at the surface are not even close to a mix at this point.
The NAM is still out of range but at 1am Sunday the 540 line or magical snow line is already up near Binghamton NY to Southern New England. So on paper the BIG TWO models I like to use are a rainmaker for Philly, DC and Baltimore and maybe a mix to start in NYC metro.
The pattern is on somewhat of a break but this is to be expected after a long run of cold weather and small snow events the last few weeks.
The NAO is slowly heading upward and will become neutral by the 20th. This upward swing does open the door for cold and warm air to meet to form a storm. Kinda think of the real cold weather pulling out as the moisture comes in. The trick is have just enough cold air behind to let the moisture form as snow. So as a pattern is changing you can get a storm to form, it’s just a matter of enough cold air crossing the region.
